Starting off on the 2 week chart for XRP we can see that this candle, which opened last night has broken below a trend support line, rejecting down from the newly formed 2 week 9 day Moving Average resistance level of $0.31358.
Last week I suggested that XRP was starting to move out of sync with Bitcoin – Bitcoin remains mildly bullish whilst XRP, ETH and LTC were showing no signs of a break to the upside. This is unusual for the market as BTC has always lead the path for the others – this doesn’t mean however things will remain this way, as Bitcoin could well fall this week as mentioned in this weeks Bitcoin analysis which would close the gap and bring things back into sync. If anything, looking at XRP and the other coins at the top of the market can give us in insight and bias on Bitcoins movement.
From the 2 week chart there is a potential short opportunity for XRP, with a stop placed above the 9 day Moving Average and a target all the way down to the newly formed and confluencing support of $0.20 as target 1, a 33% gain or 99% if margin shorting on Bitfinex.
The weekly chart shows us the same story but with abit more clarity for the shorter term. We can see that the current weekly candle for XRP is breaking below support, and if it is going to continue down, the target for this week would be the lower Bollinger Band around $0.28 before falling further next week towards $0.20.
The 10 day chart is interesting because it forms inbetween the 2 week and 1 week chart – which currently both show XRP only attempting to break below support, however there is still plenty of time for those (weekly and 2 week candles) to reject back up above support – so by viewing the closure of the 10 day chart in a couple of days time, if we see a solid break and close below the support, that will confirm the drop on the weekly and two weekly chart.
The daily chart shows this break of trend support well. With a clean break and retest, XRP is now rejecting down from the broken trend support, and from the daily 9 day Moving Average resistance.
I would imagine we will see some consolidation around this point whilst we wait for the close of the 10 day candle. Once the 10 day is closed below trend resistance we could see XRP come back up for one more retest of the trend before rejecting back down towards $0.28 this week, leading into $0.20 the following week.
The 12 hour chart gives us a possible entry for a short on XRP, after a period of consolidation this week between current price and $0.28 we could see XRP come up for one final test of broken support (now resistance) of $0.31 on the Saturday the 4th of May, followed by a very bearish candle on Sunday the 5th of May down to $0.28, giving way for a further drop towards $0.20 the following week.